INSIGHTS
APR
28
WEEK AHEAD...
We ended the week with a thud, bang, crash pow. So what? The news out of Russia could be blamed but we think not. Margin calls squeezing peoples portfolio, guess again. Economic numbers were weaker than anticipated, for one day? No. The market was down because we are in an emotional period of market dynamics. Earnings have driven things so far and they will continue to drive the market for the foreseeable future. Count on it. The selloff in tech stocks and high flyers came back to center stage and that’s where we focused on Friday.

Watching Amazon (AMZN) lose 10% of its value was actually quite pleasant. We love Amazon and their business model is great but the company has lost more money in the past five years than whole sectors of the economy have lost money. It’s stock has traded at astronomical P/E’s for years and the reality of the situation is this, you need to eventually earn profits and steady ones at that. No amount of cool looking boxes and potential drone delivery will make up for lack of profits. Sooner or later, you have to make money. Sorry Jeff Bezos, why invest in a company that has had two profitable (and marginally profitable at that) out of the last ten? When 99% of the S&P 500 is very profitable. Time to invest in what you know, profits.

Earnings this week will center on companies that consistently make money, and lots of it, Energy. Regardless of the strength of the earnings of Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHX) or Conoco Phillips (COP) you can be assured they will have made money. Investors keep looking for super growth stories, super momentum stories but they forget the smartest way to invest, in super earnings stories, and that’s what we will see this week. Even if everyone misses, a bad quarter at Exxon is a great 10 years at Amazon.

We won’t bore you with housing numbers, consumer confidence or employment numbers from ADP. It’s all about the money.