INSIGHTS
NOV
11
WEEK AHEAD...
Strong jobs growth like we had on Friday would normally propel the market much higher but this is not a normal market. The natural order of things is being disrupted.
By this we mean that good news is bad news and bad news is good news as far as equities are concerned. When the economy looks to be on a firmer footing the money is taken off the table. Reason being, stronger job numbers, more likely tapering will begin sooner than investors want. Stronger jobs number actually denote a better economic environment and that is better for stocks but in this odd period we living through, its bad news.
There is an addiction here and that addiction is to the Feds monetary support of the economy and that addiction must end. We are going to have an intervention and get people off this addiction and send them back to investing the old fashioned way. Research and respond.
Should the intervention not work and we can’t get investors off the idea of Fed support, we will send them to Betty Ford and let them do the hard work there.
The reality of the situation is this: We have an improving economy, it continues to build a slow steady momentum for growth and not all of that is related to QE3. The natural progression of any economy coming out of a major recession is growth, and usually growth in large spurts. We haven’t seen that spurt because the Fed has kept a very steady hand on monetary supply. Fearing a pickup of inflation, the Fed would rather oversupply money and keep interest rates artificially low. Well, it has worked but it’s time to let that growth happen. Its time to have some inflation. It’s time.
This will be a short week of data. We don’t see much in the way of market moving data. Jobless claims and Industrial Production could be interesting but no major surprises are expected. Fed Speakers will be busy all week but we don’t see them tipping their hand too much. Chairman Bernanke will be talking after the close on Wednesday to educators in Washington. Maybe it’s time to get the tea leaves out again.
By this we mean that good news is bad news and bad news is good news as far as equities are concerned. When the economy looks to be on a firmer footing the money is taken off the table. Reason being, stronger job numbers, more likely tapering will begin sooner than investors want. Stronger jobs number actually denote a better economic environment and that is better for stocks but in this odd period we living through, its bad news.
There is an addiction here and that addiction is to the Feds monetary support of the economy and that addiction must end. We are going to have an intervention and get people off this addiction and send them back to investing the old fashioned way. Research and respond.
Should the intervention not work and we can’t get investors off the idea of Fed support, we will send them to Betty Ford and let them do the hard work there.
The reality of the situation is this: We have an improving economy, it continues to build a slow steady momentum for growth and not all of that is related to QE3. The natural progression of any economy coming out of a major recession is growth, and usually growth in large spurts. We haven’t seen that spurt because the Fed has kept a very steady hand on monetary supply. Fearing a pickup of inflation, the Fed would rather oversupply money and keep interest rates artificially low. Well, it has worked but it’s time to let that growth happen. Its time to have some inflation. It’s time.
This will be a short week of data. We don’t see much in the way of market moving data. Jobless claims and Industrial Production could be interesting but no major surprises are expected. Fed Speakers will be busy all week but we don’t see them tipping their hand too much. Chairman Bernanke will be talking after the close on Wednesday to educators in Washington. Maybe it’s time to get the tea leaves out again.