INSIGHTS
SEP
16
WEEK AHEAD...
The strength we have seen in the equity markets while not very surprising still makes you want to scratch your head. The tapering will be coming soon and that supposed crutch we have all been leaning on will slowly be pulled away. That should be reason enough for most investors to precede with caution but few have. Mixed signals abound and yet the market has rallied on other short-term news, i.e. Syria.

The fact is, the market has a resilience that we can really appreciate. It has taking a licking but it keeps on kicking. The pullbacks have been minor and perfect spots for jumping in and looking for bargains.

The Fed will probably announce their plans sometime in the next two weeks and that bit of uncertainty will be lifted. Having Larry Summers take his name out of the running for Fed Chairman can only be taken as good news by investors. He was not a favorite of business leaders and this will put Janet Yellin squarely in the spotlight. While she is our favorite for the job, we do think that Tim Geithner will also be a top candidate.

This coming week will be a bonanza for traders who love to trade on the rumor, sell on the news.

The Housing industry will be in focus along with industrial production. Both key sets of data that show the health of the US economy. However, all eyes and ears will be on the Federal Reserve and their announcement on Wednesday. Almost every economist and market watcher believes that the Fed will make a definitive announcement as to when the tapering will begin. We do believe they will give specifics but you must remember specifics with the Fed change on a weekly basis depending on the strength or weakness of the economic conditions. So, we firmly believe there will be movement towards ending QE3 and letting the economy stand on its own. This may take months but it is the right policy and we are confident in the next six to eight months and see choppiness but a continuing long term bull market.