INSIGHTS
OCT
1
WEEK AHEAD...
With the S&P up almost 6% last quarter, the expectations for the end of the year are rather muted. More and more will made of the “fiscal cliff” we are approaching as the year comes to a close.
I will share my thoughts on that issue in the next few weeks but for now, we have to see how everything in Europe plays out along with the beginning of earnings season.
The Europeans seem poised to begin getting their fiscal houses in order and regardless of the outcome; I think it’s a positive for the markets if that uncertainty is removed. I, for one, can’t wait till they finally figure it out. It is complicated and confusing and possibly overstated as to its overall effect on the US economy.
There is a lot of data coming out this week and it will give a fairly accurate picture as to where we are and where we may be going over the next several months. Manufacturing PMI is one of the more important ones. It is due out on Monday and the consensus estimates are looking for a small contraction from Septembers PMI.
If the numbers come in slightly better (which is what I expect) the market will have a good foundation for the week.
We will have comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the FOMC minutes will be released on Thursday. That should be some interesting reading: considering they announced QE3 (infinity) and a more detailed explanation will be very helpful to see what the Fed is thinking about present and future money supply.
The Presidential Debates will be Wednesday night and the candidates will discuss domestic issues. Normally, I avoid debates because candidate’s rattle off such nonsense my head hurts but considering that Mitt Romney trails in most polls, I expect him to make it interesting. There have been instances where incumbents blew a debate and ended up blowing their lead and then the election. The same can be said for the challenger, if he blows the debate, he blows his chances.
The last piece of data that I am finally embracing is the Monster Employment Index.
It is a trailing indicator of the health of hiring in the US. It is very helpful in plotting the future growth in employment and helps give a pretty clear signal as to the strength of the economy. It usually comes out before the Employment Situation report, which is a great indicator of the overall health of employment. It uses several different data sets to come up with a cumulative number. I also think this will be a better set of numbers and end the week the way we started, on a positive note.
I will share my thoughts on that issue in the next few weeks but for now, we have to see how everything in Europe plays out along with the beginning of earnings season.
The Europeans seem poised to begin getting their fiscal houses in order and regardless of the outcome; I think it’s a positive for the markets if that uncertainty is removed. I, for one, can’t wait till they finally figure it out. It is complicated and confusing and possibly overstated as to its overall effect on the US economy.
There is a lot of data coming out this week and it will give a fairly accurate picture as to where we are and where we may be going over the next several months. Manufacturing PMI is one of the more important ones. It is due out on Monday and the consensus estimates are looking for a small contraction from Septembers PMI.
If the numbers come in slightly better (which is what I expect) the market will have a good foundation for the week.
We will have comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the FOMC minutes will be released on Thursday. That should be some interesting reading: considering they announced QE3 (infinity) and a more detailed explanation will be very helpful to see what the Fed is thinking about present and future money supply.
The Presidential Debates will be Wednesday night and the candidates will discuss domestic issues. Normally, I avoid debates because candidate’s rattle off such nonsense my head hurts but considering that Mitt Romney trails in most polls, I expect him to make it interesting. There have been instances where incumbents blew a debate and ended up blowing their lead and then the election. The same can be said for the challenger, if he blows the debate, he blows his chances.
The last piece of data that I am finally embracing is the Monster Employment Index.
It is a trailing indicator of the health of hiring in the US. It is very helpful in plotting the future growth in employment and helps give a pretty clear signal as to the strength of the economy. It usually comes out before the Employment Situation report, which is a great indicator of the overall health of employment. It uses several different data sets to come up with a cumulative number. I also think this will be a better set of numbers and end the week the way we started, on a positive note.