INSIGHTS
SEP
17
WEEK AHEAD.....
While it doesn't appear to be a week of Earth shattering news this week, I do see a couple of key talking points.
Housing starts and Existing home sales could re-energize people's belief that the economy is recovering a little stronger than the GDP data indicates. Housing has been one of the low points of this recovery and anytime we see consistent improvement, we can't help but get a little more positive. While housing data can be skewed many different ways, it is clear that housing is improving. While I expect housing starts to improve, it won't be by much.
Initial jobless claims on Thursday will show no surprise. Which is something of a surprise in and of itself. It truly is amazing how accurate the estimates have been lately. Either the economists that publish their estimates are doing an incredible job or someone in the Labor Department is passing information along before it become public.
An interesting phenomenon that happens the week after the FOMC meets is the various Fed Presidents come out and speak. Starts off with the New York Fed President Dudley today and ends with the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart on Friday.
We probably will hear the party line about QE3-I. The “I” stands for Infinity by the way.
As I have said I really don't think the economy needed a QE3. We have seen some pretty good numbers over the summer and the good people in Europe seem to really want to get their bond situation under control. A slowdown in Europe will definitely take some strength out of the multi-year recovery we are in but the US economy is not wholly dependent on Europe and we have had a lot of time to adjust our forecasts to their eminent re-recession.
So a lot of babble from some very smart people and a few key economic pointers. Boring.
My weekly “Waste of Data” Award starts this week:
The winner is the NY State Empire Index.
Sorry NY, but really? Does a state that has lost 70% of its manufacturing base over the last 30 years really matter anymore? I don't think it should be a separate index anymore. They probably should fold it into the Northeast or some other geographic region that has the heft to actually give a relative picture of the health of the manufacturing industry.
This week will shed little light on the market and the economy. We will continue an uptrend and wait for what really matters, earnings.
Housing starts and Existing home sales could re-energize people's belief that the economy is recovering a little stronger than the GDP data indicates. Housing has been one of the low points of this recovery and anytime we see consistent improvement, we can't help but get a little more positive. While housing data can be skewed many different ways, it is clear that housing is improving. While I expect housing starts to improve, it won't be by much.
Initial jobless claims on Thursday will show no surprise. Which is something of a surprise in and of itself. It truly is amazing how accurate the estimates have been lately. Either the economists that publish their estimates are doing an incredible job or someone in the Labor Department is passing information along before it become public.
An interesting phenomenon that happens the week after the FOMC meets is the various Fed Presidents come out and speak. Starts off with the New York Fed President Dudley today and ends with the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart on Friday.
We probably will hear the party line about QE3-I. The “I” stands for Infinity by the way.
As I have said I really don't think the economy needed a QE3. We have seen some pretty good numbers over the summer and the good people in Europe seem to really want to get their bond situation under control. A slowdown in Europe will definitely take some strength out of the multi-year recovery we are in but the US economy is not wholly dependent on Europe and we have had a lot of time to adjust our forecasts to their eminent re-recession.
So a lot of babble from some very smart people and a few key economic pointers. Boring.
My weekly “Waste of Data” Award starts this week:
The winner is the NY State Empire Index.
Sorry NY, but really? Does a state that has lost 70% of its manufacturing base over the last 30 years really matter anymore? I don't think it should be a separate index anymore. They probably should fold it into the Northeast or some other geographic region that has the heft to actually give a relative picture of the health of the manufacturing industry.
This week will shed little light on the market and the economy. We will continue an uptrend and wait for what really matters, earnings.