INSIGHTS
SEP
4
WEEK AHEAD...
Although this will be a Holiday shortened week, we do see some interesting things to keep an eye on. The Democratic National Convention, jobless claims and the Employment Situation.
While the DNC will probably rival the RNC for boring speeches, it will give the Obama Campaign an opportunity to dismantle everything Paul Ryan had said in his speech last week. Ryan’s speech as far as I am concerned was the only highlight of the convention. Whether you agree or disagree, he definitely made a strong impression and gave the Romney Campaign a much-needed lift after those horrible speeches by Governor Christie and Ann Romney. However, I still maintain that the Vice Presidential running mate will not play any role in this election.
The Obama Campaign will use this platform to rebuild momentum going into the stretch run of the campaign. Having the President speak in front of 68,000 supporters at Bank of America Stadium would seem to be a stroke of genius but I do think the Republicans may have a field day with the venue. Bank of America (BAC) is one of the banks that is considered one of the culprits in the financial crisis of three years ago. They are still mired in lawsuits and their stock has barely moved in over two years.
Back to more important issues, the jobless claims report comes out Thursday. I don’t expect any surprises here. We have unfortunately been trending slightly higher and that could become a much more worrisome issue if we see it happening for another two weeks. The Federal Reserve has been keeping a very close eye on this and I am sure if it continues to go slightly higher, their response in Mid September will be all but guaranteed.
I am not one to see the importance in the ADP Employment Report, which also comes out on Thursday. They are accurate but they are also a lagging indicator and I prefer statistics that have more current relevance.
On Friday, we get the Employment Situation and this could be very significant. We are at 8.3% unemployment and its not expected to change for this period. Hourly wages, which is part of the Employment Report is expected to go up slightly.
Two important facts must be remembered about this report:
1. No sitting President has ever been reelected with an unemployment rate higher than 8%.
2. With the price of food rising fairly quickly and wages rising slowly we still have to be aware of the potential for inflation to rear its ugly head. I don’t think we will see that inflation until sometime next year. I also don’t think that it will be significant enough to warrant the Federal Reserve to accelerate the rise in interest rates. The economy is not healthy enough to absorb such a move.
While the markets tend to be fairly choppy in September, this month could be especially volatile. The data we will be seeing in the first two weeks of the month and possible Fed action could lead to some significant price moves. We also have continued uncertainty from Europe which has weighed on markets for over a year and a half.
While the DNC will probably rival the RNC for boring speeches, it will give the Obama Campaign an opportunity to dismantle everything Paul Ryan had said in his speech last week. Ryan’s speech as far as I am concerned was the only highlight of the convention. Whether you agree or disagree, he definitely made a strong impression and gave the Romney Campaign a much-needed lift after those horrible speeches by Governor Christie and Ann Romney. However, I still maintain that the Vice Presidential running mate will not play any role in this election.
The Obama Campaign will use this platform to rebuild momentum going into the stretch run of the campaign. Having the President speak in front of 68,000 supporters at Bank of America Stadium would seem to be a stroke of genius but I do think the Republicans may have a field day with the venue. Bank of America (BAC) is one of the banks that is considered one of the culprits in the financial crisis of three years ago. They are still mired in lawsuits and their stock has barely moved in over two years.
Back to more important issues, the jobless claims report comes out Thursday. I don’t expect any surprises here. We have unfortunately been trending slightly higher and that could become a much more worrisome issue if we see it happening for another two weeks. The Federal Reserve has been keeping a very close eye on this and I am sure if it continues to go slightly higher, their response in Mid September will be all but guaranteed.
I am not one to see the importance in the ADP Employment Report, which also comes out on Thursday. They are accurate but they are also a lagging indicator and I prefer statistics that have more current relevance.
On Friday, we get the Employment Situation and this could be very significant. We are at 8.3% unemployment and its not expected to change for this period. Hourly wages, which is part of the Employment Report is expected to go up slightly.
Two important facts must be remembered about this report:
1. No sitting President has ever been reelected with an unemployment rate higher than 8%.
2. With the price of food rising fairly quickly and wages rising slowly we still have to be aware of the potential for inflation to rear its ugly head. I don’t think we will see that inflation until sometime next year. I also don’t think that it will be significant enough to warrant the Federal Reserve to accelerate the rise in interest rates. The economy is not healthy enough to absorb such a move.
While the markets tend to be fairly choppy in September, this month could be especially volatile. The data we will be seeing in the first two weeks of the month and possible Fed action could lead to some significant price moves. We also have continued uncertainty from Europe which has weighed on markets for over a year and a half.