INSIGHTS
SEP
4
COSTA’S CORNER
So much music, so little time. I like to revisit great music from time to time and sometimes I will just put on something I like for short bursts of that music rush we all get when we love some songs we could listen to it over and over again.
Today is more about great music and I will fight anyone on this, side one of Van Morrison’s Moondance may be one of the greatest sides of music on any vinyl record ever.
It starts with “And it stoned me” and ends with “Into the Mystic” with “Moondance”, “Caravan”, and “Crazy Love” all thrown in to make it the perfect side of music. This is one of the only records I will turn the shuffle feature off, and listen to, as it was meant to be listened to.
While “Astral Weeks” is considered to be artistically, Morrison’s greatest achievement, I think “Moondance” is way more listenable. Over and over again.
So, it’s September and the fear of God is in every investors heart. Historically, September is the worst month for investors and if you do some research you will see it also has had several record highs recorded as well so it is volatile. That will just be a continuation of what happened in August and just be prepared. What with the trade war, Brexit, Germany’s slipping into zero growth, we are going to be in for a bumpy ride and then you have to keep an eye on the Fed as well.
The summer is over and the real action will begin and the next four months will set the tone for the following first quarter of 2020 so prepare yourself.
I will throw a prediction out there, and this is a change from the beginning of the year, we will be dealing with this trade situation well into the new year and while it is having a much larger impact on markets than it actually is having on the economy, it eventually will take some of the stuffing out of the US economy and we will go to a disappointing 1% GDP growth in the last quarter of this year.
What does that mean for the markets? I’m going to take an educated guess and say we will start having a pullback at some point in the fourth quarter. Probably bring the S&P back to the 2750 level.
Not the worst scenario but getting there will be a little more frightening than we are used to.
40% Stocks
30% Fixed Income 30% Cash
Today is more about great music and I will fight anyone on this, side one of Van Morrison’s Moondance may be one of the greatest sides of music on any vinyl record ever.
It starts with “And it stoned me” and ends with “Into the Mystic” with “Moondance”, “Caravan”, and “Crazy Love” all thrown in to make it the perfect side of music. This is one of the only records I will turn the shuffle feature off, and listen to, as it was meant to be listened to.
While “Astral Weeks” is considered to be artistically, Morrison’s greatest achievement, I think “Moondance” is way more listenable. Over and over again.
So, it’s September and the fear of God is in every investors heart. Historically, September is the worst month for investors and if you do some research you will see it also has had several record highs recorded as well so it is volatile. That will just be a continuation of what happened in August and just be prepared. What with the trade war, Brexit, Germany’s slipping into zero growth, we are going to be in for a bumpy ride and then you have to keep an eye on the Fed as well.
The summer is over and the real action will begin and the next four months will set the tone for the following first quarter of 2020 so prepare yourself.
I will throw a prediction out there, and this is a change from the beginning of the year, we will be dealing with this trade situation well into the new year and while it is having a much larger impact on markets than it actually is having on the economy, it eventually will take some of the stuffing out of the US economy and we will go to a disappointing 1% GDP growth in the last quarter of this year.
What does that mean for the markets? I’m going to take an educated guess and say we will start having a pullback at some point in the fourth quarter. Probably bring the S&P back to the 2750 level.
Not the worst scenario but getting there will be a little more frightening than we are used to.
40% Stocks
30% Fixed Income 30% Cash