I'm gonna raise a fuss, I'm gonna raise a holler
About a-workin' all summer just to try to earn a dollar
Every time I call my baby, try to get a date
My boss says, "no dice son, you gotta work late"

It’s the Monday after Memorial Day and it’s summertime. Eddie Cochran may have written it but The Who made it a summertime anthem.

Typically, the summer brings little in the way of earth shaking moves in any particular market. It’s a period to catch your breath, look at your portfolio and reset.
Volumes are lower so moves can be exaggerated but rarely do they set the tone for the rest of the year.
This year probably won’t be much different but there are a few possible trigger points.
The Fed, for one. There has been some talk about the Fed possibly changing direction and cutting interest rates a touch to keep the economy moving in the right direction.
To me, this is them trying to undo the damage they caused by raising rates in the first place.
As many of you know, from the beginning, I was against any rate hikes at all. You had an economy that was starting to pick up momentum. The jobs picture was getting better each month, GDP was strengthening slowly. Inflation was not an issue. Really, the only reason to raise rates was to give yourself room later on to cut rates to stimulate the economy and that seems like a poor excuse.
I don’t think that the Fed raising rates over the last two years has had a disastrous effect but I don’t think it helped.
The US economy was poised to expand after the Great Recession, that we all know. The speed of that expansion was slow but steady during the Obama administration and it picked up steam during the present administration. So why raise rates. The natural course of a recovery was underway and for whatever reason, inflation never really picked up during this recovery. So, why raise rates?
Now, we have hit a bump in the road and smarter people than me are calling for rate cuts? Seriously? The pro-active/re-active movement of interest rates seems to me to be a bit much. Maybe I am a little too Laissez Faire but I say, keep the Fed sequestered. Stop micro managing the economy via the push and pull of interest rate adjustments. Let the economy do what it does best.
I know, I am not taking into account the complexities of the economic environment we are now in. Chinese tariffs, Mexican tariffs, possible unwinding of the European order.
Its more complex than interest rates but economies have always adjusted to the changing macro picture and this period we are in is no different.
Thankfully, it’s the summer and we can deal with most of these issues in a timely manner. I don’t see a reason to rush for the exits even though you are starting to feel the pinch in your portfolios.

Am I getting nervous? Am I getting anxious? Am I going to readjust my model portfolio in wake of the readjustment of the market? The answer is no.

50% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
25% Cash